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A mere 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the source of the side's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team continued to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. History, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.

According to the data, twice all season have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more against United.

His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward could start scoring again.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
• The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial England player.

The current run is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.